Opinion Piece on Global Travel Task Force
The importance of the Prime Minister’s expected statement next week on the reopening of international travel cannot be underestimated. In one statement he can either take a huge step forward in our national recovery, provide another false dawn for an industry on its knees or put millions of jobs in severe risk.
Over the last twelve months, our aviation, travel and tourism sectors have been amongst the most affected sectors by the COVID-19 pandemic and the impacts have been brutal, devastating and far reaching. Passenger numbers have fallen to historically low levels, with last summer seeing the lowest level of international air travel since 1975, with passenger numbers down by 99% during the worst periods of the last twelve months.
These impacts are not confined simply to numbers and statistics, there are very real human impacts of the collapse in international travel. Impacts that are often untold, neglected and forgotten. From the airport and airline staff who have lost their jobs, to the businesses in the supply chain who have shut their doors for good, to the many families who have been unable to visit loved ones living overseas.
The inclusion of international travel in the Prime Minister’s roadmap out of the COVID-19 restrictions was warmly welcomed, as was the potential date of May 17th for the restart of international travel. However, since then, we have had a conveyor belt of mixed messages from Government ministers that has left holidaymakers confused and dashed the hopes of businesses impacted by the collapse in international travel who have suffered enough pain over the last twelve months to last a lifetime.
The Government are right to remain vigilant about COVID-19 and potential variants of concern, which is why nobody is suggesting an immediate return to restriction-free travel. But, with the huge progress we have made as nation in the last few months through the combined sacrifices of everyone and our world-leading vaccination programme, the time has come to strike the right balance between risk and reopening international travel.
I know that for some the situation in some European nations leads to the conclusion that the safest and best course of action is to keep our borders closed and remain in splendid isolation. This is a dangerous approach that dismisses the progress from our vaccination programme but also fundamentally fails to understand the economic importance and value of aviation to the UK.
Aviation is about more than summer holidays; it is a major economic enabler and one which will be central our economic recovery. We know that a ‘lost summer’ of international travel will put a million more jobs at risk and cost £55.7bn in lost trade if reopening is delayed until September. We know that our hospitality, retail and leisure sectors will not fully recover without the £30 billion that international visitors spend every year in our shops, restaurants, high streets and attractions.
We know that a safe and sustainable resumption of international travel from 17 May would generate a GDP injection of £47.6bn and help secure more than a million jobs otherwise under threat – worth some £200m a day to our economy.
That is why we need a clear direction from the Prime Minister on how and when international travel can restart. It should take into account where we are and crucially where we will be by May 17th, by which time our vaccination programme will have provided many more of us with protection from the virus.
A risk-based approach to international travel using a traffic light system can allow for travel to low-risk nations with minimal or no restrictions but retain the flexibility for restrictions for nations where there remains a real, high risk including those with variants of concern. This framework can ensure that the right balance is struck between reopening travel with minimal restrictions and making sure this can be done safely.
One of the central features to this approach would be a ‘green list’ that allows for travel to low-risk nations with minimal or no restrictions. For many, this list will form the basis of their summer holiday plans so the criteria for the lists must be publicly available, clear and consistent. We cannot and must not return to the stop‑and‑start chaos that rendered last summer a false dawn for the aviation, travel and tourism industry and for holidaymakers.
Where continuing restrictions are required, they must take into account the significant progress made in recent months, particularly on testing. Research published this week by Edge Health and Oxera showed that rapid antigen testing can be just as effective as a 10-day quarantine period for stopping the spread of the virus. It is therefore clear that rapid testing must be introduced for international arrivals where necessary. Alongside this, the Government must set out a clear plan and criteria for the abolition of all quarantine policies as soon as is safe to do so, as well as ensuring that the cost of testing is kept affordable and is not allowed to become a disincentive to travel. It cannot and should not be the case that families have to several times more for tests than they do for their flights or accommodation.
The Government must also ensure that the framework for international travel ensures that all Government departments work in lockstep with each other and the framework. We need to ensure that the Foreign Office Travel Advice is amended in line with the traffic light system and that Border Force receive the full resources that they will need to avoid chaotic scenes at passport control as a result of additional COVID-19 measures. Too often have we seen queues out the door in airports in recent months, despite barely any passengers travelling, due to Border Force’s insufficient resources and lengthy document-checking processes.
The consequences of failing to back a risk-based approach to the reopening of international travel are unthinkable. That’s why we need the Prime Minister to announce that the ban on international travel will be lifted from May 17th and to work with industry and our partners throughout the world to restart travel, ensuring that travel to low-risk nations has limited or no restrictions.
We cannot begin our long road to national recovery if we keep our skies shut throughout the summer months. Our aviation industry will continue to face considerable challenges over the next few years, but the safe reopening of international travel has the potential to kickstart our economic and social recovery and we simply cannot afford another false dawn.
This opinion piece first appeared in the Daily Mail - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9433653/Boris-Johnson-course-green-light-trips-abroad-traffic-light-system.html